ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁ · ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ · ꯃꯤꯅꯤꯠ 8

ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ

ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯍꯧꯁꯥꯒꯤꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯑꯔꯊ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ꯫

ꯊꯨꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ

ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯉꯥ: 2.7%꯫ ꯇꯔꯥ: 0.074%꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯅ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫

ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 5
2.73%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 8
0.31%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 10
0.074%
ꯔꯦꯀꯣꯔꯗ
ꯑꯃꯨꯕ 26, 1913

ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯒꯦ

ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ 19 ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤ꯫ ꯔꯣ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯗꯕꯜ ꯇꯧꯔꯤꯕ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫

ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ
ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯇꯧ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯅ 1 / …ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ
151.4%2$1$2
226.4%4$3$4
313.5%7$7$8
47.0%14$15$16
53.6%28$31$32
61.8%55$63$64
70.94%106$127$128
80.48%207$255$256
90.25%403$511$512
100.13%784$1,023$1,024
110.065%1527$2,047$2,048
120.034%2974$4,095$4,096
130.017%5792$8,191$8,192
140.0089%11279$16,383$16,384
150.0046%21965$32,767$32,768

ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 19/37 ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯀꯥ ꯃꯜꯇꯤꯞꯂꯥꯏ ꯇꯧꯕꯅꯤ, ꯈꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ꯫ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯍꯧꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯂꯩ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ꯫

ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ

ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ k ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → (18/37)ᵏ ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯅꯤ: 23.7%꯫ ꯃꯉꯥ: 2.7%꯫ ꯇꯔꯥ: 0.074%, 1,350 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯃꯔꯛ꯫ ꯀꯨꯟ: 1.8 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗꯒꯤ 1꯫ ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯀꯣꯔꯗ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯨꯟꯊꯔꯨꯛ: 137 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗꯒꯤ 1꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯄ ꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯅꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯇꯁꯦꯡꯅ ꯍꯪꯂꯤꯕ ꯋꯥꯍꯪ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫

ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ k ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 1
48.65%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 2
23.67%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 3
11.51%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 4
5.60%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 5
2.72%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 6
1.33%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 7
0.645%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 8
0.314%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 9
0.153%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 10
0.074%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 12
0.018%
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ 15
0.002%
%
024.3248.65%
ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯄ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ (18/37)ᵏ꯫ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯥ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯗꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ꯫

ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ

ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ

ꯃꯤꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯍꯪꯂꯤꯕ ꯋꯥꯍꯪ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ “ꯑꯩꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯗ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯥ ꯑꯃꯗ k ꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ?” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ (18/37)ᵏ ꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯐꯝ 200 ꯃꯔꯛ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯀꯤ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯑꯃꯨꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯃꯨꯕꯑꯃꯨꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯅꯣꯌꯥꯔ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯇꯔꯨꯛ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 94% ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ; ꯅꯤꯄꯥꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯍꯦꯟꯕ 47% ꯃꯔꯛ; ꯇꯔꯥ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯍꯦꯟꯕ 14% ꯃꯔꯛ꯫ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕꯗ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ 75%, 27% ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 7% ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯍꯟꯊꯔꯛꯏ꯫ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯐꯝꯗꯨꯅ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ ꯎꯒꯅꯤ꯫

ꯌꯥꯃꯗ꯭ꯔꯕꯗ k ꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯑꯃꯨꯕꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯗꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯗꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 500 ꯗ
595.6%99.8%> 99.9%
675.7%94.4%99.9%
748.2%74.1%96.8%
826.7%47.3%80.4%
106.8%13.7%31.5%
121.6%3.4%8.5%
ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯃꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯜꯂꯕ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ; ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯗ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ 75% ꯃꯔꯛꯅꯤ꯫

ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯦ

ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯟꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ꯫ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯇ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯊꯨꯒꯥꯏꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯀꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯩ: $500 ꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗ $10 ꯒꯤ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ, ꯐꯤꯕꯣꯅꯥꯆꯤꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯐꯤꯕꯣꯅꯥꯆꯤ1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… ꯁꯤꯛꯋꯦꯟꯁ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯟꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ: ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ, ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯇꯔꯥ, ꯗꯖꯟꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯗꯖꯟ1–12, 13–24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 25–36, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯅꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯉꯥ꯫ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯀꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% ꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 100 ꯃꯔꯛ ꯌꯥꯎꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯃꯉꯥꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯊꯨꯒꯥꯏꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯥꯛꯏ꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯅꯤ ꯂꯝꯕꯤ ꯂꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯈꯔꯥ ꯈꯛꯇꯗ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯅꯠꯇꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯝ꯫

ꯐꯤꯕꯣꯅꯥꯆꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ

ꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯏꯪꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ

ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯃꯛ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ, 35:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗꯁꯨ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 300 ꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ 8.1 ꯅꯤ; ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 2.8 ꯃꯔꯛꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯇ ꯂꯥꯛꯈꯛꯇꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯔꯅ 15 ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯔꯅ 2 ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ꯫ “ꯁꯥꯠꯄ” ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯕꯣꯔꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯅꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯗꯤꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ꯭ꯌꯨꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯊꯥꯖꯕꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅꯛꯅꯗ ꯊꯥꯖꯈꯤꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯛꯇꯦ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯔꯊ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯄꯤꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯂꯦꯕꯅ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ (ꯈꯉꯖꯤꯜꯂꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥ)꯫

ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ: ꯕꯣꯔꯗ ꯄꯥꯕ

ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯅꯤ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ

ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯇꯔꯥꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯕ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯣꯏ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯁꯨ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯣꯏ꯫ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ 18/37 ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯒꯨꯅꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯩꯇꯔꯕꯗ ꯆꯤꯡꯅꯕ ꯄꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ: ꯃꯔꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 200 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯅꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯄꯥꯉ꯭ꯒꯜ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯁꯥꯛꯁꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ꯫

ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯨꯂꯥ

p(ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ k, ꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝ) = (18/37)ᵏ
p(ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ N ꯗ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯥ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ≥ k) ≈ 1 − exp(−N · pᵏ · (1 − p))

ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ

ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯏꯔꯝꯕ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯆꯨꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ?

1913 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯒꯁ꯭ꯠ 18 ꯗ ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣꯗ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯨꯕ 26 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯂꯩꯔꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯤ꯫ 1943 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯦꯔꯤꯀꯥꯒꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ 32 ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯄꯥꯎ ꯐꯪꯈꯤ꯫ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ ꯂꯥꯛꯀꯥ ꯌꯥꯅꯩ꯫

ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯩꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯃꯒꯗ꯭ꯔꯥ?

ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗꯁꯨ 18/37 ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯊꯝꯒꯅꯨ꯫

ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯇꯥꯀꯄꯔꯥ?

ꯇꯥꯀꯄꯗꯦ꯫ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥꯗ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯈꯔꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯗ ꯎꯏ, ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯎꯗꯦ꯫

ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯀꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ

ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯊꯨꯡꯗꯨꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ; ꯁꯦꯝ ꯁꯥꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯡꯗꯣꯛꯄꯤꯌꯨ꯫

  1. ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 37 ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯃꯛ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯒꯅꯤ?

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 155 ꯈꯔ; ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ ꯑꯁꯤ 147꯫

    ꯉꯥꯏꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯃꯛꯇꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯅ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯇꯥꯛꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 1 ꯎꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ, ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 37 ꯗ 36 ꯑꯅꯧꯕꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37/36 ꯆꯪꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ k ꯎꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ, 37/(37 − k) ꯆꯪꯏ꯫

    ꯉꯥꯏꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯜꯂꯨ: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 155.5꯫

    ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕꯗꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯀꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯆꯪꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ 85 ꯈꯔ꯫ ꯑꯃꯦꯔꯤꯀꯟ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯅ 161 ꯈꯔ ꯄꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯨꯄꯟ ꯈꯣꯃꯖꯤꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥꯅꯤ; ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕꯇꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫

  2. ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯗ, ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯃꯛ, ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯎꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯊꯥꯖꯒꯗꯒꯦ?

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ 23.6 ꯈꯔ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯈꯔ, 13 ꯈꯔ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯇꯁꯨ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯦ꯫

    ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯧꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯈꯨꯗꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ 17꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 36/37, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363꯫

    ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ 37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 ꯊꯣꯛꯏ, ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯏ꯫

    ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯕꯨ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯀꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ: ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯨꯝꯅ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯃꯌꯥꯝ ꯑꯃꯗ, ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯈꯔ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯦ, ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯗꯁꯨ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯆꯛꯔꯗꯁꯨ꯫ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ 38 ꯗ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯗꯨꯁꯨ (37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363; ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ 1/e ≈ 0.368 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯥꯛꯇ ꯂꯦꯞꯏ꯫

  3. ꯃꯔꯨꯞ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯅꯍꯥꯀꯄꯨ ꯃꯆꯨ 50 ꯒꯤ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯑꯃꯨꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯃꯨꯕꯑꯃꯨꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯅꯣꯌꯥꯔ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯑꯃꯃꯛ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯁꯤꯡꯆꯛꯔꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯕ ꯑꯁꯪꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ; ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ, 0꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯊꯥꯗꯨꯅ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯀꯈꯤꯕꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ꯫ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 25 ꯍꯣꯡꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 35 ꯍꯣꯡꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯩꯗꯧꯉꯩꯗꯁꯨ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯁꯥꯡꯗꯦ꯫ ꯀꯅꯥꯅ ꯁꯦꯃꯖꯤꯟꯈꯤꯕꯒꯦ?

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ꯫ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ 25 ꯈꯔ ꯍꯣꯡꯏ꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 35 ꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ 500 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔ ꯊꯣꯛꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ 100 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯈꯔ꯫

    ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯏ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯣꯡꯏ, ꯌꯥꯝꯈꯥꯏ ꯌꯥꯝꯈꯥꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯍꯣꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 49 ꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯍꯣꯡꯕ 24.5 ꯄꯤ, 3.5 ꯈꯔ ꯍꯦꯟꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯟꯊꯕ꯫ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯃꯉꯥ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯃꯊꯛꯇꯅꯤ; ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ 500 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔ ꯄꯨꯊꯣꯛꯏ꯫

    ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡꯅꯁꯨ ꯋꯥꯔꯤ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ꯫ 50 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯇꯝ 98% ꯈꯔꯗ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯩ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯌꯥꯗ ꯃꯉꯥ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯅꯤ꯫

    ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯦꯝꯅꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯕ ꯃꯤꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯍꯣꯡꯏ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯗ ꯄꯦꯇꯔꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯨꯝ ꯎꯏ꯫ Taylor (2021) ꯅ ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯁꯦꯃꯖꯤꯟꯈꯤꯕ ꯀꯣꯏꯟ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯂꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯈꯉꯅꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯇꯥꯛꯂꯤ: ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯃꯤꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯊꯥꯖꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯂꯩ꯫

  4. ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯏꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯃꯉꯥ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯕꯨ ꯔꯦꯀꯣꯔꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯀꯧꯔꯤ꯫ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯇꯞꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ? ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯇꯦꯕꯜ 20 ꯂꯩꯕ, ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯅ ꯄꯨꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 40, ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯅꯨꯡꯊꯤꯜ ꯀꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯃꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯗꯒꯦ?

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯊꯣꯅꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯃꯉꯥ: 69 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗ 1꯫ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ: 1.87 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗ 1꯫ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 7 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟ ꯈꯔ ꯀꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯎꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ꯫

    ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯊꯣꯅꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ 1/37 ꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ (1/37)⁵ = 69,343,957 ꯗ 1꯫ ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯊꯣꯅꯗꯦ꯫ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯔꯕꯁꯨ, ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯃꯔꯤꯅ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯗꯕꯅꯤ: (1/37)⁴ = 1,874,161 ꯗ 1꯫

    ꯇꯦꯕꯜ 20 × ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 40 × ꯄꯨꯡ 24 × ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠ 365 = ꯆꯍꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 7,008,000꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯧꯗꯣꯀꯄ ꯌꯥꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ 7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ 3.7 ꯊꯥꯖꯏ꯫

    ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯣꯐꯤꯁꯤꯌꯦꯜ ꯔꯦꯀꯣꯔꯗ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯁꯨ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ: ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯇꯞꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯋꯥꯔꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ Goldman (2007) ꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯋꯥꯔꯤ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯗꯕꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯅꯤ, ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ 79 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗ 1 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 2.09 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗ 1꯫

ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯅꯤ꯫

ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯅꯤ꯫

ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3 ꯁꯨꯕ ꯑꯦꯗꯤꯁꯟ, 1968꯫ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯟ ꯇꯥꯀꯍꯟꯕ (gambler’s ruin), ꯆꯦꯞꯇꯔ XIV꯫
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010꯫ ꯆꯦꯞꯇꯔ 13, ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ꯫
  3. Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2021꯫
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