ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ: ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯀꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ
ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯗ $140, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ 13–18 ꯗ $50, ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯗ $10: ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ $200, ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 25 ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯖꯦꯃꯁ ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯀꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ, ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯨꯟꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ꯫

ꯖꯦꯃꯁ ꯕꯣꯟꯗ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯌꯣꯟꯂꯤꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 20 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ $80 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ, $100 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ, $160 ꯒꯤ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 1–12 ꯗ $200 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯔꯤ꯫ ꯃꯍꯩ +$620, ꯀꯩꯗꯧꯉꯩꯗꯁꯨ $40 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯗꯦ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯟꯗꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ $200 ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫
ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ
ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ: 19–36 ꯗ $140, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟꯌꯨꯝꯂꯣꯟꯅꯕ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ, 5:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯁꯤꯖꯦꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 13–18 ꯗ $50, ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯛꯔꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯕ ꯑꯁꯪꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ; ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ, 0꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ $10꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 25 ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯅ $140 ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ $60 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ: +$80꯫ ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯅꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯅ $250 ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ $150 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ: +$100꯫ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ $350 ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ $190 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ: +$160꯫ 1–12 ꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯜꯂꯤ: −$200꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, ꯃꯁꯤ $200 ꯒꯤ 2.70% ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯐꯤꯔꯣꯜ ꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯠ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1–10
19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29꯫ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯅꯤ: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯇꯔꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯂꯦꯟꯁ +$340, ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ $200 ꯂꯧꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 6 ꯒꯤ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ $160 ꯄꯤꯈꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯔꯨꯞ ꯑꯃꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯅꯤ꯫

ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 11–20
5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25꯫ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯇ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯅꯤꯅ ꯕꯦꯂꯦꯟꯁ ꯑꯗꯨ +$280 ꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯍꯅꯈꯤ; ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯗꯨ +$620 ꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯅꯍꯅꯈꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯨꯟ: ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ 12, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ 3, ꯖꯤꯔꯣ 1, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ 4꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ −$108; ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ +$620, ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯗꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 1.2 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯐꯕ ꯅꯨꯡꯊꯤꯜ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫
- p10 −$2,000
- p25 −$2,000
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$2,000
- p75 −$2,000
- p90 +$780
ꯁꯦꯟꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯨꯟꯗ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ $4,000꯫ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → $108꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ $135, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯨꯟꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ $605; +$620 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯅꯨꯡꯊꯤꯜ ꯃꯥꯄꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ $200 ꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯗꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯨꯟ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯔꯃꯒꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯗꯤꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ꯭ꯌꯨꯁꯟ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯄꯥꯛꯂꯃꯒꯅꯤ (ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ σ ≈ $200): ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯕꯦꯠꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯃꯨꯕ, ꯕꯤꯖꯣꯔ/ꯖꯣꯔ, ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯅꯦꯝꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18, 1:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯦꯝꯃꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕ
ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯀꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕꯗ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯤ −1/37 ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯅꯤ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯒꯨꯝꯅ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯃꯒꯨꯟꯗꯤ ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯟꯕꯅꯤ: 67.6% ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡꯅ ꯅꯨꯡꯊꯤꯜ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ 32.4% ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ $200 ꯂꯧꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯅ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯂꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯁꯨ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯃꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯅꯣꯚꯦꯂꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ: ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯅ ꯗꯖꯟꯕꯦꯠꯗꯖꯟ1–12, 13–24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 25–36, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯏꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯇꯧꯈꯤ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯗ $140 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ $70 ꯈꯛꯇꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ +$160 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ +$230 ꯀꯥꯟꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕꯗ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ 1.8%꯫ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯐꯩ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯁꯨ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕꯅꯤ꯫
ꯆꯥꯡ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯍꯜꯂꯤ: $80, $100, $160꯫ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯍꯦꯛꯇꯅ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯄꯤ꯫
ꯍꯣꯌ꯫ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 25 ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ $200 ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯁꯦꯟꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯈꯅꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯦ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯗ, ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- Fleming, I. Casino Royale.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.