ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟ
ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟ, ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ, ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯃꯍꯧꯁꯥꯅ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯂꯥꯞꯄꯅꯤ꯫
ꯊꯝꯂꯕ $1 ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ σ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯀꯤꯗꯃꯛ 5.84 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ 1.00 ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯤꯕꯨ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯇꯅ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯂꯥꯏꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ
ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯃꯔꯛ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕꯗꯒꯤ σ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 95% ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ $10 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯗ (ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ −$27, σ = $100) ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯌꯥ −$127 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ +$73 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯔꯛ −$227 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ +$173 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯄꯥꯟꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯅ ꯇꯧꯏ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯛꯁꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫
ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ √N
ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → N ꯒꯥ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯂꯀꯏ; ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯀꯄ √N ꯒꯥ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯂꯀꯏ꯫ N ꯑꯄꯤꯀꯄꯗ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯀꯄꯅ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯂꯩ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯔꯥ ꯌꯦꯟꯊꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯏꯟ ꯂꯥꯞꯄꯒꯨꯝꯅꯤ꯫ N ꯑꯆꯧꯕꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯀꯄꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯖꯩ꯫ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ N = (σ/ꯑꯦꯖ)² = (1/0.027)² ≈ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1,370 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ, 35:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ (5.84/0.027)² ≈ 46,800 ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯂꯥꯛꯅ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯤ; ꯃꯊꯛꯇꯗꯤ ꯑꯦꯖꯅ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯤ꯫
ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯍꯧꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯕꯔꯥ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯋꯥꯌꯦꯜ ꯇꯧꯅꯕ (ꯃꯍꯩ − EV)/σ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗ $10 ꯊꯝꯕ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯗ +$150 ꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯕꯗ (150 + 27)/100 = 1.77σ ꯗ ꯂꯩ, 25 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩ: ꯂꯥꯛ ꯐꯕꯅꯤ, ꯑꯉꯀꯄ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ +$150 ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗꯤ 0.3σ ꯗ ꯂꯩ: ꯃꯍꯧꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫ ꯗꯣꯂꯥꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯕ ꯑꯔꯊ ꯄꯤ꯫
ꯆꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯑꯦꯔꯔ
ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯃꯛꯅ ꯗꯦꯇꯥꯗ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯎꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯨ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯎꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯑꯦꯔꯔ √(p(1 − p)/N) ꯅꯤ꯫ N = 1,000 ꯂꯩꯕ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗ: √(0.4865 × 0.5135 / 1000) ≈ 1.6%꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯀꯣꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯕ 1.35% ꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1,000 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯁꯨ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯊꯥꯖꯕꯥ ꯌꯥꯅꯅ ꯈꯦꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯉꯝꯗ꯭ꯔꯤ꯫ 10,000 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯑꯦꯔꯔ 0.5% ꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯦꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯉꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯁꯨ ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯤ꯫
ꯌꯦꯟꯊꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯆꯦꯀꯁꯤꯅꯕ
ꯃꯇꯝ ꯀꯨꯞꯄ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯀꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯅꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯗꯤꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ꯭ꯌꯨꯁꯅꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯂꯥꯞꯏ: ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯄ ꯂꯩꯇꯅ −$10 ꯑꯣꯏ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯈꯔꯗ +$350 ꯆꯣꯡꯊꯕ ꯂꯩ꯫ ±1σ ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯅ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯀꯄ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯨꯃꯅ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ N ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯐꯅ ꯇꯥꯀꯄ ꯉꯝꯗꯦ꯫ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯃꯨꯕ, ꯕꯤꯖꯣꯔ/ꯖꯣꯔ, ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯅꯦꯝꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18, 1:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ ꯅꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯑꯦꯞꯔꯣꯛꯁꯤꯃꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 30 ꯃꯔꯛꯇꯒꯤ ꯐꯩ꯫
ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯨꯂꯥ
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯁꯤ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 40 ꯃꯔꯛ ꯁꯥꯅꯈꯤ, ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯔꯤꯆꯥꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯛ ꯐꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯩꯈꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯛꯁꯤꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯧꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯆꯣꯡꯊꯗꯦ: ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯑꯦꯔꯔ σ/√N ꯅꯤ꯫ N = 10,000 ꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ 1% ꯅꯤ꯫
ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯀꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ
ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯊꯨꯡꯗꯨꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ; ꯁꯦꯝ ꯁꯥꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯡꯗꯣꯛꯄꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯗ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ 51 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯩ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯕꯦꯠꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ, 35:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 3 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯗꯨꯅ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ ꯈꯟꯊꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯕꯨ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯥ ꯆꯥꯡꯗꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ
ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ: ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚꯅ 35.6% ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ 35.5%꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞ: ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚꯅ 55.0% ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ 50.9%꯫ ꯊꯨꯅ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯀꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯆꯨꯃꯗꯦ꯫
ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ: ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ 100 × 18/37 = 48.6, ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ √(100 × 18/37 × 19/37) = 5.0꯫ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ 51 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯅꯤ; ꯃꯔꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯐꯝ, 50.5, ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ 0.37 ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯂꯩ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ 35.6% ꯊꯝꯏ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ 51, 52 … 100 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯜꯂꯕꯗ 35.5% ꯄꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞ: ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ 100/37 = 2.70, ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ √(100 × 1/37 × 36/37) = 1.62꯫ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ 2.5 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇꯅꯤ, ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ 0.12 ꯃꯈꯥꯗ: ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚꯗ 55.0%꯫ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕꯗ, ꯃꯁꯤ 1 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ 0, 1 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 2 ꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯧꯊꯣꯀꯄꯅꯤ, 6.5% + 17.9% + 24.7%, ꯃꯁꯤꯅ 50.9% ꯊꯃꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫
ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚꯗ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛꯇ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯏ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯂꯩ; ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯟꯊꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ꯫ ꯀꯔꯚ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ “ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ” ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯁꯨ 8.7% ꯄꯤ, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 6.5% ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ꯫ Taylor (2021) ꯅ ꯕꯥꯏꯅꯣꯃꯤꯌꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ ꯃꯅꯥꯛ ꯃꯅꯥꯛꯇ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯤꯒꯃꯥ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯄꯥꯟꯗ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ ꯃꯇꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯩ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.