ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯂꯦꯕ · ꯂꯦꯕ · ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯛꯁ · ꯃꯤꯅꯤꯠ 8

ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯁꯤꯒ꯭ꯅꯤꯐꯤꯀꯦꯟꯁ

“ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯍꯟꯊꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ, “ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ “ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯂꯩꯕ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯨ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫

ꯊꯨꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ

p-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨ 0.05 ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯆꯦꯟꯊꯔꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯀꯨꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯄꯨꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯀꯨꯟ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯈꯪꯗꯅ ꯄꯥꯁ ꯇꯧꯒꯅꯤ꯫

ꯆꯠꯅꯕꯤ
p < 0.05
ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕꯀꯤ ꯔꯦꯠ
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ 5%
ꯁꯦꯃꯗꯣꯛꯄ
ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯧꯕ
ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯕꯒꯦ
p(ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩ)

p-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ

ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯔꯕꯗꯤ, ꯎꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯥ ꯈꯟꯅꯔꯕꯗ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯆꯥꯎꯕ ꯆꯦꯟꯊꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯎꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯂꯧꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯗꯦꯇꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ, ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ 0.03 ꯒꯤ p-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨꯂꯦꯕp-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯎꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯟꯊꯗꯕ ꯂꯥꯞꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯎꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ: ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 3% ꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯗꯦ: ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 97% ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯑꯍꯧꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯁꯤꯡꯂꯦꯕꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯁꯛꯇꯝꯒꯤ ꯑꯁꯣꯏꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯈꯔꯕꯨ 1/37 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯍꯟꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ꯫ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯌꯥꯝꯗꯦ, ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥꯅ ꯈꯛꯇꯃꯛ ꯈꯉꯕ ꯉꯝꯃꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯈꯉꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯈꯟꯗꯦ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯀꯏꯕꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯀꯄ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯂꯩ꯫

ꯋꯥꯐꯝꯆꯨꯝꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?
p = 0.03 ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 3% ꯗ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯗꯦꯇꯥ ꯄꯤꯍꯣꯌ
p = 0.03 ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 97% ꯂꯩꯅꯠꯇꯦ
p = 0.03 ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯥꯠꯂꯤꯉꯩꯅꯤꯅꯠꯇꯦ
ꯆꯛꯔ 30 ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ p = 0.03 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯄꯥꯡ ꯀꯅꯕ ꯈꯨꯠꯊꯥꯡꯅꯤꯅꯠꯇꯦ; ꯂꯥꯀꯏꯕꯅ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ
ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ p = 0.03 ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯂꯩ

ꯀꯌꯥ ꯆꯥꯡꯗꯝꯕ

ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯕ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯇ 5% ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯂꯗ ꯄꯥꯁ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 5% ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯀꯨꯟ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯄꯥꯁ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯕꯨ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯀꯨꯟꯗ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯄꯥꯁ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯑꯃꯕꯨ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯀꯤꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯒ꯭ꯔꯨꯞ 37, ꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯒꯤꯆꯛꯔꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯔꯛ ꯂꯩꯇꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ, ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯀꯥꯡꯂꯨꯞ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯒ꯭ꯔꯨꯞ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯆꯨꯒꯤ ꯒ꯭ꯔꯨꯞ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯄꯥꯁ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯏꯌꯦꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯗꯦꯇꯥ ꯌꯦꯡꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯦꯞꯊꯣꯀꯄ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯛ ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯗꯦꯇꯥꯗ ꯁꯣꯏꯗꯅ ꯇꯥꯀꯄꯅꯤ꯫ “ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ” ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤꯕ ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯄꯨꯊꯣꯀꯄꯅꯤ꯫

p < 0.05 ꯗ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯒꯤ ꯍꯟꯊꯗꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ%
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ 1
5%
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ 5
23%
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ 10
40%
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ 20
64%
ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ 37 (ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ)
85%
%
042.5085%
1 − 0.95ⁿ꯫ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗ “ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ” ꯑꯃꯥ ꯐꯪꯕ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯂꯩꯇꯅ ꯁꯣꯏꯗꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ꯫

ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯥꯡ

ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯆꯥꯎꯕ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯑꯃꯕꯨ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ꯫ 1/37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ 1/36.5 ꯗ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯑꯁꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟ ꯈꯔꯗ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯛꯀꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 35:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯀꯁꯨ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯅꯒꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕꯗꯤ ꯊꯧꯒꯂꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡꯅꯤ: ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ 1/36 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯔꯥ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ? ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔꯅ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ; ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯠ ꯈꯛꯅ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ꯫

ꯄꯥꯋꯔ

ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯕ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯇꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1,000 ꯗ, 1/30 ꯗ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ (ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯆꯥꯎꯕ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯑꯃꯥ) 5% ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯂꯗ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯁꯦꯃꯗꯣꯀꯄꯗꯤ ꯂꯧꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ, ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯁꯥꯏꯖꯅꯤ꯫ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯁꯥꯏꯖꯒꯤ ꯂꯃꯥꯏꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯤ꯫

ꯊꯕꯛꯇ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ

ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁꯀꯤ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯂꯩꯅꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ: ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯈꯅꯈꯤꯕ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ, 0.05 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ p < 0.01, ꯆꯥꯡ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯧꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ 1/34 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯕ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯋꯥꯔꯤꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔꯈꯛ ꯐꯪꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯃꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯀꯣꯔꯗꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ, ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯩꯗꯧꯉꯩꯗꯁꯨ ꯐꯪꯈꯤꯗꯦ꯫

ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ

ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ 0.05?

1920 ꯁꯨꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯕ ꯆꯠꯅꯕꯤꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯗ ꯑꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯀꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ; ꯆꯛꯔ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯂꯤꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ 0.01 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫

p ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯂꯕꯗ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯁꯣꯏꯗꯅ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?

ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯤꯗꯕꯥ ꯌꯥꯏ꯫ ꯗꯤꯂꯔꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯒꯜ, ꯏꯕꯗ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯗꯦꯇꯥ ꯆꯪꯍꯟꯕꯗ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯧꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫

ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯇ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯃꯒꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯇꯥꯀꯄꯥ?

ꯇꯥꯛꯇꯦ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯗꯤꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ꯭ꯌꯨꯁꯟ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯨꯝꯗꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯈꯛ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯅꯣ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯨ ꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔ ꯑꯦꯅꯥꯂꯥꯏꯁꯤꯁ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯧꯒꯂꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡꯅ ꯇꯥꯀꯏ꯫

ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯀꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ

ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯊꯨꯡꯗꯨꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ; ꯁꯦꯝ ꯁꯥꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯡꯗꯣꯛꯄꯤꯌꯨ꯫

  1. ꯔꯤꯄꯣꯔꯠ ꯇꯧꯈꯤꯕ ꯗꯕꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯛꯔꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯕ ꯑꯁꯪꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ; ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ, 0꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯗꯖꯟꯕꯦꯠꯗꯖꯟ1–12, 13–24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 25–36, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 3,000 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 742 ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯃꯅ ꯇꯧꯒꯅꯤ?

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ

    ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟ 8.1 ꯈꯔ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 3 × 10¹⁵ ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔ ꯇꯧꯒꯅꯤ, ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯤ ꯀꯩꯗꯧꯉꯩꯗꯁꯨ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯋꯥꯍꯪ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ ꯐꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯃꯅ 11.75 ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ; ꯑꯩꯈꯣꯌꯅ 8.07 ꯐꯪꯏ꯫

    ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯗꯖꯟꯗ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 38 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ 12 ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 3,000 ꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4, ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5꯫

    742 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗꯒꯤ 205.4 ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯂꯩ: 205.4/25.5 = ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ 8.07꯫

    ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 740 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯍꯟꯊꯩ; ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ ꯅꯤꯄꯥꯟ ꯍꯟꯊꯕ, 3 × 10¹⁵ ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯈꯔ (ꯕꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯚ, ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ)꯫ ꯄꯥꯔꯤꯕꯅ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯠꯇꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯎꯈꯤꯕꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯊꯤꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯀꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯦ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ, ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ, ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯔꯤ꯫ ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ 9.0 ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯂꯩꯒꯅꯤ (ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ 973.0, ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ 25.6)꯫

ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯀꯨꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ “ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ” ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯊ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯤ꯫

ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯀꯨꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ “ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ” ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯊ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯤ꯫

ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900꯫
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, ꯑꯦꯗꯤꯁꯟ 3, 1968꯫ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯟ ꯇꯥꯀꯍꯟꯕ, ꯆꯦꯞꯇꯔ XIV꯫
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, roulette questions. ꯑꯣꯒꯁ꯭ꯠ 3, 2026ꯗ ꯑꯅꯧꯅ ꯁꯦꯃꯈꯤ꯫
ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯅꯈꯤꯕ 2026-09-28ꯃꯣꯗꯦꯜ: ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ, ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯃꯦꯊꯗꯣꯂꯣꯖꯤ ↗ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ ↗