1-3-2-6 ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ

1-3-2-6 ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ?

ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ: ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ (ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯕ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯂꯒ)꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ: ꯑꯅꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯔꯤ ꯈꯣꯃꯖꯤꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ: ꯇꯔꯨꯛ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ: ꯂꯧꯊꯣꯀꯎ, ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ +12 ꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯦ꯫ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯀꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯈꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯟꯅꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯍꯨꯝꯁꯨꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯔꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ ꯂꯩꯍꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯃꯈꯤꯕꯅꯤ꯫

ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯤꯕꯒꯦ?

ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ p = 18/37꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯖ 1 ꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ: 51.4%꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 1 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯖ 2 ꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ: 25.0%꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 2 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯖ 3 ꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ: 12.2%꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 3 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯖ 4 ꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ: 5.9%꯫ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯐꯥꯕ: 5.6%꯫ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯂꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ: −1(0.514) − 2(0.250) + 2(0.122) + 0(0.059) + 12(0.056) = −0.514 − 0.500 + 0.244 + 0 + 0.672 = ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ −0.098꯫ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯁꯦꯜꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯨ ꯌꯥꯎꯅ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯍꯦꯟꯗꯜ, ꯑꯦꯛꯁꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ≈ 1 + 3(0.486) + 2(0.237) + 6(0.115) = ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 3.62꯫ ꯔꯦꯁꯤꯑꯣ: −2.7%꯫

ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯎꯕꯒꯦ?

ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯃꯔꯤꯗ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯄꯥꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ +12 ꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯐꯥꯏ꯫ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯈꯣꯉꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯈꯔꯗ +12 ꯆꯣꯡꯕ ꯂꯩ; ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 39% ꯃꯔꯛꯇꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯊꯨꯕꯗ ꯆꯥꯎꯅ ꯂꯥꯛꯄ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ, ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯂꯕ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇꯒꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯅ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ 2.70% ꯂꯧꯏ꯫

1-3-2-6 ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕꯔꯥ?

ꯇꯧꯗꯦ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯃꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯅ ꯑꯋꯥꯕ ꯄꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯨ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯤ, ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯨ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯤ −2.7% ꯐꯪꯏ, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ꯫

ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯃꯖꯤꯡꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯑꯍꯨꯝꯁꯨꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯅ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯄꯤꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯁꯦꯜꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯛꯔꯅ ꯃꯗꯨꯗꯁꯨ 2.70% ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯂꯧꯏ꯫

ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯈꯂꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯩꯕꯔꯥ?

1-3-2-4 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯇꯞꯄ ꯃꯈꯜ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ (ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ +10, ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ 4)꯫ 1-2-3-6 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 1-3-2-6 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯟꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯅꯩ; ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯅ ꯑꯋꯥꯕ ꯄꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯃꯈꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ; ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯦꯟꯊꯣꯛꯂꯤ ꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ꯫

ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ · 1-3-2-6

$1,000ꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒꯥ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 2,000꯫

ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ $10 · ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ $500 · ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100

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