ꯖꯦꯃꯁ ꯕꯣꯟꯗ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ
ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 20 ꯒꯤ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯥ: 19–36 ꯗ 14, 13–18 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟꯗ 5, ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯗ 1꯫

ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ 25 ꯀꯨꯞꯏ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ 67.6% ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ꯫ 1–12 ꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 20 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →: ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 20 ꯒꯤ −2.70%, ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯨꯝꯅ꯫
ꯖꯦꯃꯁ ꯕꯣꯟꯗ (007) ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ?
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯀꯨꯟ, ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯈꯥꯌꯗꯨꯅ: ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯗ (19–36) ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 14, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟꯌꯨꯝꯂꯣꯟꯅꯕ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ, 5:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯁꯤꯖꯦꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 13–18 ꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 5, ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯗꯆꯛꯔꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯕ ꯑꯁꯪꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ; ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ, 0꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯕꯦꯠꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ, 35:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 1꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯨꯟꯃꯉꯥ ꯀꯨꯞꯏ; 1 ꯗꯒꯤ 12 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯦ꯫ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯁꯨ, ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯏꯌꯟ ꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯃꯤꯡ (Ian Fleming) ꯒꯤ ꯅꯣꯚꯦꯂꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ: Casino Royale (1953) ꯗ ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯅ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗ ꯗꯖꯟꯕꯦꯠꯗꯖꯟ1–12, 13–24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 25–36, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯀꯤ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯀꯅꯥꯅ ꯄꯤꯈꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯤ ꯈꯉꯗꯦ꯫
ꯃꯍꯩ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯄꯤꯕꯒꯦ?
19–36 ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗ (ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18): ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯅ 14 ꯄꯤ, ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ 6 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ, ꯅꯦꯠ +8꯫ 13–18 ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗ (ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 6): ꯁꯤꯛꯁ ꯂꯥꯏꯅꯅ 25 ꯄꯤ, ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ 15 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ, ꯅꯦꯠ +10꯫ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗ: 35 − 19 = +16꯫ 1–12 ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗ (ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 12): ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤ, −20꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯎꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 8 ꯗꯒꯤ 16 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ; ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯗ 20 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯗ: 18 × 8 + 6 × 10 + 16 = 220 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ, 12 × 20 = 240 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ, 740 ꯊꯝꯂꯕꯗ ꯅꯦꯠ −20꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯤꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯏ ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯅ ꯐꯪꯈꯤꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯔꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯦꯡꯅꯕ ꯃꯈꯜ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$360
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$280
ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗꯗꯤ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯣ?
ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯈꯔꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ (1–12) ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏꯅ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 32.4% ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯇꯔꯥꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯨꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 80 ꯌꯧꯏ; $1 ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ $500 ꯒꯤ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯇꯦꯕꯜꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯦꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯡꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯌꯧꯏ (20, 40, 80, 160, 320, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ 640)꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯦꯡꯅꯕ ꯆꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯗꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯛꯁꯅꯗ ꯌꯦꯡꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ −2.70% ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯅꯤ꯫
ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯃꯅ ꯄꯥꯝꯕꯅꯣ?
ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯗ ꯌꯦꯡꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯄꯤ: ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ, ꯃꯍꯩ ꯃꯔꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯒꯤ ꯆꯤꯞꯁꯦꯜꯆꯤꯞꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯇꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯣꯀꯟ, ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯅꯕ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯆꯦꯛ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯏꯟꯁ꯭ꯌꯣꯔꯦꯟꯁꯀꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯅꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯗꯤꯂꯔꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯂꯥꯏ꯫ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯥꯟꯅ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ; ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯎꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯈꯛ ꯈꯉꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯑꯩꯈꯣꯌꯅ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯉꯝꯂꯕ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛꯇꯒꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ Casino Royale (1953) ꯗ ꯕꯣꯟꯗꯅ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ; ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯄꯤꯈꯤ꯫
ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ꯫ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯕꯨ ꯆꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯕꯁꯨ (140/50/10) ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯩꯔꯤ꯫
ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ꯫ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯩ: ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯅ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 64.9% ꯗ +1 ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯗ 2 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ; ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ 67.6% ꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 20 ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ +8 ꯗꯒꯤ +16 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯗ 20 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯀꯨꯟꯊꯔꯥꯇꯔꯦꯇꯀꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯨꯟꯃꯉꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯃꯂꯅꯤ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- RouletteDoc꯫ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫
- Roulette77꯫ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Fleming, I. Casino Royale.