ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ (ꯔꯤꯚꯔꯁ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ)
ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯇꯧꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯍꯧꯕꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯏ꯫

ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯆꯛꯔꯕꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯍꯟꯗꯦ; ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯈꯛ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤꯅ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕꯗ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯗꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯊꯏ꯫ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯦ꯫
ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯆꯠꯄ
ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯆꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯁꯨꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯍꯧꯕꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫
ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇꯅꯤ꯫
ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯅ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯝꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ, ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯣ: ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯁꯨꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗ, ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯇꯔꯦꯠ ꯂꯧꯊꯣꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯂꯣ꯫ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯁꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗ ꯑꯃꯗꯁꯨ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯂꯣ꯫ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯁꯦꯜꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯁꯥꯟꯅꯅꯕ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ꯫ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯃꯦꯅꯦꯖꯃꯦꯟꯠ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕꯗ ꯊꯃꯒꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯋꯥꯔꯦꯞ ꯂꯧꯕꯅꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯂꯕꯁꯨ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ꯫ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → (18/37)³ = 11.5% ꯅꯤ, ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯃꯥꯄꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯔꯣꯝ꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯎꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯇꯞꯅ ꯇꯞꯅ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯃꯥꯡꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯛ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯆꯣꯡꯊꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯈꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ: ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯌꯥꯎꯏ, ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯄꯤꯗꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯄꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯔꯣꯝꯅ ꯇꯔꯦꯠ ꯄꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯅꯦꯝꯃꯤ (30% ꯔꯣꯝ), ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥꯗ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯤꯡ ꯁꯣꯟꯊꯍꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯤꯛ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯕ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯂꯩꯗꯦ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯕꯗ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯗꯨꯅ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$300
- p75 +$30
- p90 +$320

ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?
ꯇꯧꯗꯦ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ, ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯗꯦ꯫ p = 18/37 ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯁꯅꯨ꯫ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ p³ = 0.115 ꯗ 7 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ; ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 1 − p³ = 0.885 ꯗ 1 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ꯫ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯒꯗꯕ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92꯫ ꯈꯥꯌꯔꯕꯗ: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%꯫ ꯈꯥꯌꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯇꯧꯔꯕꯗ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤꯃꯛ ꯄꯤ꯫
ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯄꯥꯝꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯊꯔꯤꯕ ꯆꯤꯞꯁꯤꯡꯁꯦꯜꯆꯤꯞꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯇꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯣꯀꯟ, ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯅꯕ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯆꯦꯛ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯜꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯊꯝꯕꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯄꯤꯔꯛꯄ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ 2.70% ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯄꯨꯔꯤ꯫
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯉꯥꯏꯔꯕꯗꯗꯤ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯣ?
ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ: ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯍꯧꯕꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯏ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯔꯤꯚꯔꯁ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ 16 ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ 15, ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ (18/37)⁴ = 5.6%꯫ ꯇꯦꯂꯔ (2021) ꯅ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯋꯥꯍꯪ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯪꯏ: ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯈꯔꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯒꯥ, ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯂꯣꯏꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯑꯁꯨꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯐꯪꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯀꯌꯥꯅꯣ? ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯆꯞꯆꯥꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 15 ꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ 1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58% ꯅꯤ, 15 ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯇ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯤ 48.6% ꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯐꯩ꯫ ꯑꯔꯥꯟ ꯈꯨꯕꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯎꯏ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕ ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯥꯀꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 9 ꯅꯤ, 15 ꯅꯠꯇꯦ; ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯟꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ꯫ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯇ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯝꯕꯅ, ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯀꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯐꯠꯇꯦ꯫
ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?
ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛꯈꯛ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ (3 ꯂꯧꯕ) ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ (15 ꯂꯧꯕ) ꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ, ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯗꯦ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ “ꯄꯥꯔꯂꯦ” (35 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯝꯂꯤꯕ) ꯑꯁꯤ p = 1/37 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ 1,295 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯒꯤ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯂꯩꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯔꯤ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ, ꯇꯧꯔꯤꯕ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫
ꯀꯅꯥꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯈꯅꯕꯒꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤꯅꯣ?
ꯁꯥꯏꯀꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯄꯥꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯇꯞꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯗꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯛꯁꯅꯗ ꯌꯦꯡꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯈꯂꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯔꯣꯟꯅꯤ: ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯅ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯄꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯀꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯈꯟꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯕ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯧꯔꯛꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ; ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤꯅ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯄꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯈꯟꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯗꯕ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯧꯔꯛꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗꯁꯨ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯅ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯒꯤꯁꯦꯜꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯨ ꯌꯥꯎꯅ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯍꯦꯟꯗꯜ, ꯑꯦꯛꯁꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 2.70% ꯂꯧꯏ꯫
ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ · ꯄꯥꯔꯣꯂꯤ
$1,000ꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒꯥ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 2,000꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ $10 · ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ $500 · ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯇ ꯑꯋꯥꯕ ꯄꯨꯔꯛꯄ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯄꯨꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯉꯃꯗꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯑꯁꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯦ꯫ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ: ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ꯫
ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯀꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯠꯅꯕꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯦ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ (ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ 7) ꯉꯥꯏꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯔꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ (11.5%) ꯑꯥꯁꯥ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯊꯕꯁꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯅꯤ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- RouletteDoc꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯌꯦꯡꯕ꯫
- Roulette77꯫ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.