ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ
ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯂꯃꯥꯏ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯄ ꯉꯝꯗꯕꯒꯦ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫
ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗꯤ, ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯗꯤ, ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯤ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ꯫ $10 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ $500 ꯒꯤ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯁꯤꯛꯋꯦꯟꯁ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯌꯧꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯅꯤ, ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 19/37 ꯅꯤ꯫
ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ $10, ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ $500꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ $640 ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤ, ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ: ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯁꯤ $630 ꯃꯥꯡꯗꯨꯅ ꯁꯣꯛꯂꯤ꯫ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯗ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯊꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, ꯃꯇꯧ ꯑꯁꯨꯝꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 55 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ꯫
ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯆꯠꯄ
ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯗꯕꯜ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯍꯧꯕꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫
ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇꯅꯤ꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯎꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡꯁꯤꯡ, ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯊꯣꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯕ ꯆꯠꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯥꯄꯆꯤꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯆꯨꯃꯗ꯭ꯔꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯗ ꯀꯥꯛꯂꯛꯂꯤ꯫ $500 ꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗ ꯊꯨꯒꯥꯏꯕ ꯆꯠꯄ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯇ $630 ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯂꯤ: ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ 63꯫
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$1,000
- p75 +$930
- p90 +$1,830
ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ
ꯁꯦꯇꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ $1,000 ꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 2,000 ꯆꯂꯥꯏ꯫ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯛꯇ ꯑꯅꯧꯅ ꯍꯣꯡꯂꯛꯂꯤ꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯍꯦꯅꯕꯅ ꯈꯔꯥ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯗꯨꯅ ꯂꯣꯏꯏ (40.8%), ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯤꯕꯨ ꯂꯧꯁꯤꯟꯂꯤ꯫ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯚꯅꯤ (−$66.44), ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯆꯧꯕꯅꯤ: ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ 59.3%ꯗ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯗ ꯊꯨꯡꯈꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ $10ꯒꯤ ꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯠ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯅ $27 ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯅꯤ꯫
ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯒꯦ
ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ 19 ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤ꯫ ꯔꯣ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯗꯕꯜ ꯇꯧꯔꯤꯕ ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫
| ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ | ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ | ꯃꯇꯧ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯅ 1 / … | ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯥ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ | ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 19/37 ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯀꯥ ꯃꯜꯇꯤꯞꯂꯥꯏ ꯇꯧꯕꯅꯤ, ꯈꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯒꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ꯫ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯍꯧꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯂꯩ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ꯫
ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯊꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯥꯃꯉꯥꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 22,000 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯉꯥꯛ ꯁꯦꯟꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯇꯥꯏ꯫ ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅ ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯧꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯅꯨꯡꯊꯤꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯂꯩ꯫ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯇꯔꯥꯃꯉꯥ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯌꯧꯗꯦ: $10 ꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯧꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯇꯒꯤ $500 ꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯗꯨ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ 55 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯑꯣꯗꯁ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯄ ꯉꯝꯗꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −2.70% ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯕꯗꯤ, ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯁꯤꯛꯋꯦꯟꯁ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ, ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯈꯅꯕꯁꯨ, ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −2.70% ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤ꯫ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯈꯅꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ; ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯗ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯗꯦ꯫
bᵢ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ i ꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯈꯅꯏ; Xᵢ = ±1 ꯑꯁꯤ bᵢ ꯒ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯦ
ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯂꯁꯤꯡ
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯀꯌꯥ, ꯈꯔꯥ ꯈꯛꯇꯗ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀ꯭ꯂꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯅꯍꯥꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯅ ꯁꯤꯟꯒꯅꯤ꯫
