ꯑꯦꯖ ꯈꯪꯗꯣꯀꯎ
ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯀꯝꯕꯤꯅꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯈꯟꯗꯨꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯦꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕꯅ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯃꯃ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫
ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯇꯔꯥꯃꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯜ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ꯫ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ, ꯑꯃꯦꯔꯤꯀꯟ, ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯤꯅꯤ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯁꯤꯡ; ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗꯁꯤꯡ꯫ 0.1%ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯄꯣꯏꯟꯠ 3, 0.5%ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯗꯤ 2, 1%ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯗꯤ 1꯫
6ꯒꯤ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ 1
ꯁ꯭ꯀꯣꯔ
16–18: ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯀꯣꯛꯇ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫
11–15: ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯤ (2.70, 5.26, 1.35, 7.89) ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯃꯤꯟꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯦ ꯈꯉꯏ꯫
6–10: ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯈꯉꯏ; ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯈꯂꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯦꯖꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯩ꯫
6ꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯦꯝꯂꯕꯗꯤ: ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯊꯃꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ: ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯦꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏ꯫ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯅꯤ: ꯑꯦꯖ = −Σ(ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ × EV) / Σ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫
ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕꯒꯦ
ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯗꯣꯂꯥꯔ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯂꯩ: (ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯕꯦꯖ − ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →) / ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡ; ꯃꯁꯤ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ −1/37, ꯑꯃꯦꯔꯤꯀꯟ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ −2/38, ꯃꯤꯅꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ −1/13, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯥ ꯄꯥꯔꯇꯥꯖꯅꯤꯌꯝꯂꯥ ꯄꯥꯔꯇꯥꯖꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ: ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯦꯟꯕ ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯏ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ 1.35% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯊꯥꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯂꯩꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗꯕꯦꯠꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯃꯨꯕ, ꯕꯤꯖꯣꯔ/ꯖꯣꯔ, ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯅꯦꯝꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18, 1:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → −0.5/37 ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯑꯃꯦꯔꯤꯀꯟ ꯇꯣꯞ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯩ: ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯉꯥꯗ 6:1 ꯄꯤꯗꯨꯅ −3/38 ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯨꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯅ ꯈꯥꯌꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯦꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯅ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯄꯥꯝꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯞꯔꯦꯗ ꯑꯃꯍꯦꯛꯇꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37 ꯑꯣꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯤ −1/37 ꯑꯣꯏ꯫
ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ ꯃꯤꯟꯊꯣꯛꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯤꯞꯁꯤꯡꯁꯦꯜꯆꯤꯞꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯇꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯣꯀꯟ, ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯅꯕ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯆꯦꯛ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 1.35%ꯗ ꯂꯩ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ 2.70%ꯗ ꯂꯩ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩ, ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯟꯅ ꯋꯦꯠ ꯇꯧꯗꯨꯅ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯈꯟꯗꯨꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯌꯦꯡꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.