ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁ / ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟ
ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ “ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ” ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯇꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯐꯜ ꯄꯤꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ꯫
ꯊꯨꯅ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯦꯝꯗꯦ; ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯅ ꯄꯤꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯂꯧꯕ ꯉꯃꯗꯕ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ “ꯂꯣꯛ ꯇꯧꯗꯦ”꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁ
ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯦꯄꯄꯤꯌꯨ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯕꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯨ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯐꯠꯇꯕ ꯐꯤꯚꯝ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ, ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯐꯪꯅꯕ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕ ꯍꯧꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯂꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯤ: ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯃꯗꯨ ꯌꯧꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯩꯗꯧꯉꯩꯗꯁꯨ ꯍꯦꯟꯗꯦ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯅꯦꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯥꯖꯕ ꯌꯥꯅ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯥꯖꯕ ꯌꯥꯅ ꯂꯣꯏꯍꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟ
ꯄꯥꯟꯗꯝ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯦꯄꯄꯤꯌꯨ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯗꯨꯗ ꯌꯧꯔꯕꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯨ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯃꯍꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯀꯌꯥꯗ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯀꯁꯨ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯒꯤꯁꯦꯜꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ, ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯨ ꯌꯥꯎꯅ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯍꯦꯟꯗꯜ, ꯑꯦꯛꯁꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → −2.70% ꯅꯤ; ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯥꯛꯀꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯈꯤ, ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯕꯨ ꯂꯧꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯗꯦ꯫ “ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯂꯣꯛ ꯇꯧꯕ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯋꯥꯍꯩ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯐꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ꯫ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯉꯁꯤ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯍꯞꯇꯥꯗ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯗ 18/37 ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ꯫
ꯑꯔꯤꯕ ꯌꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ
ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯅ ꯃꯇꯦꯡ ꯄꯥꯡꯕꯔꯥ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯥꯅꯈꯤ꯫ ꯂꯣꯖꯤꯁꯤꯌꯥꯟ ꯖꯣꯟ ꯚꯦꯟ (John Venn) ꯅ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯀꯗꯒꯦ ꯃꯁꯥ ꯈꯛꯇꯅ ꯈꯅꯕ ꯉꯝꯕ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯂꯩ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯂꯧꯈꯤ, ꯀ꯭ꯔꯦꯗꯤꯠ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ ꯂꯩꯇꯔꯕꯗ꯫ ꯂꯣꯔꯗ ꯔꯦꯂꯩ (Lord Rayleigh) ꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛꯇ ꯂꯣꯏꯕ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯗ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯥꯡꯏ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯄꯤꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯀꯤ ꯊꯤꯑꯣꯔꯦꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯌꯥꯅꯩ: ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯀꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯗꯦ (Epstein, 2013)꯫ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆꯇ ꯋꯥꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯩ, faire Charlemagne꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯤꯅꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯤꯡꯅꯤ, ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫
ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯐꯒꯠꯂꯛꯄꯅꯣ
ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯅ ꯆꯠꯅꯕ ꯐꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯤꯕꯅ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 60 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ 100 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ 60 ꯊꯃꯈꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯃꯗꯕ ꯗꯣꯂꯥꯔꯗ 2.70% ꯄꯤꯈꯤꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯅꯕ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯆꯞꯆꯥꯅ ꯆꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯜꯂꯤ: ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁ, ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯟꯗꯝ, ꯃꯗꯨ ꯌꯧꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯃꯇꯃꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ, ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯅꯕ
ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯒꯤ ꯕꯖꯦꯠꯀꯤ 20–40% ꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯠꯇꯕ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯤꯡꯅ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯅꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯗꯥꯡ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥꯗ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯊꯣꯀꯍꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯇꯤꯛ ꯀꯟꯊꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯗꯅ꯫ ꯕꯖꯦꯠꯀꯤ 20–50% ꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯋꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯌꯧꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ (ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 100 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯔꯣꯃꯗ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ $500 ꯗꯒꯤ +$100 ꯌꯧꯏ), ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯏꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯗꯅ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤꯅꯤ; ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯏꯔꯝ ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯠꯅꯕꯤ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫
- p10 −$460
- p25 −$300
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$140
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$140
ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯗ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ
ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯦꯄꯈꯔꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯛꯇꯔꯕꯗ ꯈꯛꯇ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫ “ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯞ-ꯂꯣꯁ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯉꯥꯛꯇꯨꯅ ꯊꯝꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯃꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯔꯤ ꯁꯥꯅꯕꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯎꯔꯕꯗ, ꯉꯝꯈꯩ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯍꯟꯗꯦ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯁꯤꯡ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯍꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯊꯃꯈꯤꯕꯒꯤ −2.70% ꯗ ꯊꯃꯏ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯜꯂꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯉꯥꯛꯄ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯂꯥꯏ꯫ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯆꯠꯂꯨ꯫ ꯃꯗꯨꯅꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ꯫ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯁꯥꯟꯗꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯦ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯅ ꯇꯔꯅꯑꯣꯚꯔ ꯍꯟꯊꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯗꯨꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯃꯇꯤꯛ ꯆꯥꯏ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- RouletteDoc꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯌꯦꯡꯕ꯫
- Roulette77꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯌꯦꯡꯕ꯫
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.