ꯃꯦꯊꯗꯣꯂꯣꯖꯤ
ꯋꯦꯕꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯍꯟꯕꯒꯦ, ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯕꯨ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯍꯟꯕ ꯉꯝꯅꯕ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯧꯏ: ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ 37, ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯍꯥꯟꯅꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ꯫ ꯋꯦꯕꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 36/n − 1, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯥꯌꯗ꯭ꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯂꯥ ꯄꯥꯔꯇꯥꯖꯅꯤꯌꯝꯂꯥ ꯄꯥꯔꯇꯥꯖꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ: ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯦꯟꯕ ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯏ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯗꯨꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ 1.35% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤꯗ ꯊꯥꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯂꯩꯇꯦ꯫ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯁꯤꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯖꯦꯅꯦꯔꯦꯇꯔ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯩ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯗ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯁꯥꯏꯖ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫
ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯨꯂꯥꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ
ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → = ꯀꯚꯔ ꯇꯧꯔꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ / 37꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → = −ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ/37꯫ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → = p·W² + (1 − p) − EV²꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯤꯡ: (18/37)ᵏ꯫ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕꯄꯥꯟꯗꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯧꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯉꯩꯗ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →: p = 18/37 ꯂꯧꯗꯨꯅ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯔꯨꯏꯅꯒꯤ ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯨꯂꯥ꯫ ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯁꯥꯏꯖꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯃꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡ: α = 0.05 ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯋꯔ 80% ꯂꯩꯕ ꯋꯥꯟ-ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯄꯣꯔꯁꯟ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯅꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯑꯦꯞꯔꯣꯛꯁꯤꯃꯦꯁꯟ꯫
ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 18/37 ꯂꯩꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯃꯨꯕ, ꯕꯤꯖꯣꯔ/ꯖꯣꯔ, ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ/ꯑꯅꯦꯝꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18, 1:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯩ꯫ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯇꯦꯕꯜꯇꯦꯕꯜꯒꯤ ꯉꯝꯈꯩꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯦꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯉꯝꯈꯩ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯡꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯦꯃꯍꯧꯔꯤꯕ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯁꯦꯜꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜꯁꯥꯟꯅꯅꯕ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ꯫ ꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯃꯦꯅꯦꯖꯃꯦꯟꯠ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕꯗ ꯊꯃꯒꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯋꯥꯔꯦꯞ ꯂꯧꯕꯅꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯍꯦꯟꯗꯅ ꯊꯝꯗꯦ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯌꯧꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯝꯗ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯝꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯏ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯟꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯟꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ꯫ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯄꯦꯖ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯏꯔꯤ꯫ ꯁꯦꯇꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯄꯤꯅꯕ ꯁꯤꯗꯁꯤꯡ ꯆꯦꯠꯅ ꯊꯝꯏ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔꯅ ꯃꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯗ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯇꯁꯤꯡ
ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁꯀꯤ ꯄꯦꯖꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯗꯤꯒ꯭ꯔꯤ ꯑꯣꯐ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯤꯗꯝꯂꯦꯕꯗꯤꯒ꯭ꯔꯤ ꯑꯣꯐ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯤꯗꯝꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯛ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯚꯦꯂꯨꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ 36 ꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕꯗ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 36 ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯤꯌꯔꯁꯟꯒꯤ ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯒꯨꯗꯅꯦꯁ-ꯑꯣꯐ-ꯐꯤꯠ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯩ꯫ p-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨꯂꯦꯕp-ꯚꯦꯜꯌꯨꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯎꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯟꯊꯗꯕ ꯂꯥꯞꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯎꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯔꯦꯒꯨꯂꯔꯥꯏꯖ ꯇꯧꯔꯕ ꯏꯟꯀꯝꯞ꯭ꯂꯤꯠ ꯒꯥꯃꯥ ꯐꯉ꯭ꯀꯁꯟꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯆꯛꯔꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯔꯛ ꯂꯩꯇꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ, ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯀꯥꯡꯂꯨꯞ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯇꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ p = ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →/37 ꯂꯩꯕ ꯕꯥꯏꯅꯣꯃꯤꯑꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯀꯌꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯔꯤꯄꯣꯔꯠ ꯇꯧꯏ꯫
ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯇꯧꯕ
ꯄꯔꯁꯦꯟꯇꯦꯖꯁꯤꯡ ꯗꯦꯁꯤꯃꯦꯜ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ, ꯁꯦꯜ ꯁꯦꯟꯇ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯗꯣꯂꯥꯔ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯐꯥꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯁꯦꯟꯇꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯧꯊꯣꯛꯏ꯫ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯇꯧꯗꯦ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯊꯣꯀꯏ꯫