ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡ
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯑꯅꯧꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯏ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯅ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯀꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯁꯣꯀꯍꯟꯗꯦ꯫ ꯋꯦꯕꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝ ꯑꯣꯏ꯫
ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ
p(ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1 ꯗ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯕꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 2 ꯗ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →) = p(ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ) = 18/37꯫ ꯍꯥꯟꯅꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯀꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯦꯡꯕꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯟꯗꯦ꯫ ꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯊꯥꯖꯕꯁꯥꯠꯄ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅꯛꯅꯗ ꯊꯥꯖꯈꯤꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯛꯇꯦ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯏꯪꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯊꯥꯖꯕꯏꯪꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯈꯉꯍꯟꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯄꯤꯗꯦ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯣꯛꯀꯗꯕ ꯃꯆꯨꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯥꯟꯅꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅꯤ, ꯃꯥꯡꯂꯣꯟ ꯇꯥꯀꯄ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯩ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯃꯗ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝ ꯑꯣꯏ꯫ ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ, ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯟꯅꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯔꯕꯅꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯒꯤ ꯂꯃꯥꯏꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯕꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯝ꯫
“ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯩ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯐꯤꯖꯤꯛꯁꯀꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯑꯔꯥꯅꯕꯅꯣ
ꯕꯣꯜꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯕꯣꯜꯔꯣꯇꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯌꯣꯛꯇ ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯛꯇ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯕꯣꯜ꯫ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯀꯤ ꯕꯣꯜꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯥꯏꯚꯣꯔꯤꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯇꯦꯐ꯭ꯂꯣꯅꯅ ꯁꯦꯝꯃꯤ, 18–21 mm꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯈꯨꯠꯅ ꯆꯦꯛꯀꯟꯗ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯤꯇꯔꯒꯤ ꯇꯔꯥꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯈꯔꯅ ꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯊꯨꯅꯕꯗ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯀꯏ; ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯩꯐꯨ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯏꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯟꯅꯥ ꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁꯟ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯛ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯣꯏꯏ; ꯃꯗꯨ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯂꯦꯞꯄꯤꯕ ꯀꯣꯟꯅꯥ ꯗꯤꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯛꯇꯔꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯗꯤꯐ꯭ꯂꯦꯛꯇꯔꯇꯥꯗ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ ꯕꯣꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯍꯟꯕ ꯑꯦꯞꯔꯅꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯦꯇꯦꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯊꯤꯡꯕꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯀꯦꯅꯨ, ꯗꯥꯏꯃꯟꯗ, ꯄꯤꯟ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯤꯄꯥꯅꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁꯣꯀꯏ; ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯠꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯦꯇꯦꯂꯒꯤ ꯈꯥꯌꯗꯣꯛꯄ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯆꯣꯡꯊꯩ, ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯅ 1 m/s ꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯕꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯄꯤꯕ ꯐꯜ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯇꯦꯛꯅꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯑꯔꯊꯗ ꯀꯦꯑꯣꯇꯤꯛꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯚꯦꯔꯤꯑꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯔꯤꯗꯦ꯫ ꯔꯣꯇꯔꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯔꯣꯇꯔꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯨꯔꯛꯄ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯀꯣꯏꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯔꯣꯇꯔ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯇꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯕ ꯂꯣꯠꯄ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁꯀꯤ ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯅꯤ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯒꯦ
ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯍꯥꯟꯅꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯐꯉ꯭ꯀꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫ ꯍꯥꯟꯅꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯈꯉꯍꯟꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯄꯨꯗꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯐꯉ꯭ꯀꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯕꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯐꯒꯠꯍꯟꯕ ꯉꯝꯗꯦ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯌꯣꯛꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯃꯒꯤ ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯦꯜ ꯃꯈꯂꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯁꯦꯝꯂꯣꯏꯗꯕ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛꯁꯨ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯂꯃꯥꯏꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ: ꯄ꯭ꯔꯨꯐ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯗ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯄꯣꯟꯗꯦ꯫
ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯂꯥꯟꯊꯣꯛꯀꯅꯤ
ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯛꯇꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯔꯕꯗ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯗꯤꯂꯔꯅ ꯕꯣꯜ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯀꯄ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯈꯉꯕ ꯌꯥꯔꯕꯗꯈꯛ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯦꯕꯀꯤ ꯍꯤꯔꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯁꯨ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯐꯤꯖꯤꯛꯁꯇꯅꯤ, ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ: ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯏ, “ꯏꯪꯂꯕꯥ” ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯗꯦꯇꯥ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯥꯡꯗ ꯁꯥꯛꯁꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯦꯇꯔꯟ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯈꯦꯠꯅꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫
ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯂꯧꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ
ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯀꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕꯗꯈꯛ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯛ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯐꯤꯖꯤꯛꯁꯅ ꯐꯪꯏ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ꯫ 1999 ꯗ ꯏꯉ꯭ꯂꯤꯁ ꯁꯣꯂꯤꯁꯤꯇꯔ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯕ ꯁꯦꯂꯤ ꯀ꯭ꯂꯥꯔꯛ (Sally Clark) ꯕꯨ ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯆꯥ ꯅꯨꯄꯥ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯠꯈꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯐꯪꯍꯅꯈꯤ꯫ ꯄꯦꯗꯤꯑꯦꯠꯔꯤꯁꯤꯌꯥꯟ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯖꯨꯔꯤꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯈꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯗꯤ ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯈꯂꯒꯤ ꯌꯨꯝ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ ꯗꯦꯊ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 73 ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯅꯤ, ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ 8,543 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯕꯨ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯧꯗꯨꯅ ꯐꯪꯈꯤ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯧꯕꯅ ꯁꯤꯕ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯨꯝ ꯂꯧꯏ꯫ ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯃꯆꯥ ꯅꯨꯄꯥꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯖꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯌꯨꯝ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯗ ꯂꯩꯃꯤꯟꯅꯩ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯀ꯭ꯔꯤꯕ ꯗꯦꯊ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯔꯣꯌꯦꯜ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯁꯣꯁꯥꯏꯇꯤꯅ 2001 ꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯌꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯐꯣꯡꯗꯣꯛꯇꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯦꯗꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯁꯥꯛꯁꯤ ꯃꯌꯦꯛ ꯁꯦꯡꯂꯛꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ 2003 ꯗ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯑꯄꯤꯜ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀ꯭ꯂꯥꯔꯀꯀꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯐꯪꯍꯅꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯀꯛꯊꯠꯈꯤ꯫ ꯍꯨꯅꯥꯆꯦꯛ (2025) ꯅ ꯂꯃꯥꯏ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯌꯨꯝꯐꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯝꯕꯤꯅꯕ ꯀꯦꯁ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯩ: ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯈꯛ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ RNG ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯁꯤꯡ
ꯁꯣꯐ꯭ꯇꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯁꯔꯇꯤꯐꯥꯏ ꯇꯧꯔꯕ ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯖꯦꯅꯦꯔꯦꯇꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯧꯏ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯃꯒꯨꯟ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯇꯁꯦꯡꯅ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯇꯧꯏ: ꯗ꯭ꯔꯣ ꯃꯤꯂꯤꯌꯟ ꯀꯌꯥꯗ ꯃꯊꯪ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ꯫ ꯀꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯃꯃꯤ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯦꯃꯖꯤꯟ ꯁꯥꯖꯤꯅꯕꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯕ ꯎꯠꯂꯕ RNG ꯇꯦꯕꯜ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯔꯇꯤꯐꯤꯀꯦꯁꯟ ꯐꯪꯂꯣꯏ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯉꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯀꯟꯅꯕꯅꯤ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯉꯃꯗꯦ꯫ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯉꯝꯂꯕꯗ ꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯆꯛꯔꯁꯦꯛꯇꯔꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯔꯛ ꯂꯩꯇꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯆꯠꯅꯅ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ, ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯀꯥꯡꯂꯨꯞ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯇꯣꯉꯥꯟꯅ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ ꯈꯔꯥ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯥꯕ ꯌꯥꯏꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ; ꯂꯦꯕꯇ ꯗꯤꯂꯔꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯏꯅꯦꯆꯔꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯦꯡꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯨꯗꯤꯑꯣꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯤꯡꯅꯕ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯀꯄꯒꯤ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯌꯥꯗ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕꯗꯤ ꯊꯤꯑꯣꯔꯤꯗ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯏ꯫ ꯃꯊꯪꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛꯇꯗꯤ ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯗꯦ꯫
ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯀꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ
ꯃꯁꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛ ꯃꯁꯥꯃꯛꯅ ꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯊꯨꯡꯗꯨꯅ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ; ꯁꯦꯝ ꯁꯥꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯃꯗ ꯍꯥꯡꯗꯣꯛꯄꯤꯌꯨ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯋꯥꯡꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ ꯄꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 0 ꯑꯁꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯦꯝꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯅꯤ꯫ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯆꯪꯒꯅꯤ?
ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯎꯠꯄ
ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ ꯆꯨꯝꯅ 2.70%, ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯦ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅ ꯋꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯅꯦꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯐꯤꯚꯝ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇꯅꯤ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ, ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 1/37꯫
ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤ (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37 ꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ, ꯆꯨꯝꯅ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 2.70% ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯆꯪꯏ꯫
ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯎꯔꯕ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯌꯥꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ: 0 ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ 37 ꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ 36 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯅꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯑꯅꯧꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯏ꯫ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯃꯁꯤꯗ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯄꯣꯟꯏ꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”