ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ ꯈꯣꯡꯊꯥꯡ: ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ
ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯗꯣꯂꯥꯔ ꯇꯔꯥ, ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 24 ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ, ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯌꯥꯡꯈꯩꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯄ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯁꯨ 2.70% ꯆꯪꯕ ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯅꯤ꯫

ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯗꯖꯟꯗ $10 ꯊꯝꯗꯨꯅ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯇꯧꯔꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 50 ꯒꯤ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ $10 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ 31, $20 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯥꯃꯥꯄꯜ (ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯁꯨꯕ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ)꯫ $90 ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯍꯩ −$70꯫ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯅꯥ ꯉꯥꯀꯊꯣꯛꯂꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯍꯟꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯒꯨꯝꯅ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫
ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ: ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ
ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯗꯖꯟꯕꯦꯠꯗꯖꯟ1–12, 13–24 ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 25–36, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ $10 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕꯗ $10꯫ 1 ꯗꯒꯤ 24 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ $20 ꯄꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ $10 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ: +$10꯫ 25 ꯗꯒꯤ 36 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯛꯔꯖꯤꯔꯣꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ, ꯗꯖꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯇꯕ ꯑꯁꯪꯕ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯇ; ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯀꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯀꯐꯝꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁꯤꯡꯒꯜ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ, 0꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯅ ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯜꯂꯤ: −$20꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = −20/37 = ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ −$0.54, ꯃꯁꯤ $20 ꯒꯤ 2.70% ꯅꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ 64.9%, ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯌꯣꯟꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 1–25
ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯄꯥꯟ, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯦꯠ: +$180 − $140 = +$40꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯦꯠꯇ ꯖꯤꯔꯣ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 11–13 ꯗ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯁꯨꯕ ꯗꯖꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯇꯥꯅ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯌꯥꯎꯏ, ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯃꯈꯥ ꯇꯥꯅ $60 ꯃꯥꯡꯍꯅꯈꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯈꯟꯅꯕꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯈꯤ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤ 35.1% ꯑꯗꯨ ꯄꯨꯟꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯨꯟꯅ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛꯅꯤ꯫

ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 26–50
ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯔꯥꯍꯨꯝ, ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ: +$130 − $240 = −$110꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 25 ꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯁꯤ 20% ꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛꯅꯤ, ꯈꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ꯫ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ −$70; ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 31 ꯗ +$90꯫ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ $10 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ $20 ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯅꯥ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯀꯔꯝꯕ ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩꯗꯁꯨ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯆꯠꯀꯥꯏꯕ ꯄꯨꯊꯣꯀꯈꯤꯗꯦ; ꯃꯁꯤ ꯇꯞꯅ ꯍꯨꯟꯊꯈꯤꯕꯈꯛꯅꯤ꯫
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ꯃꯤꯗꯤꯌꯥꯟ −$280
- p75 −$40
- p90 +$170
ꯁꯦꯟꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ
ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 50 ꯗ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ $1,000꯫ ꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯃꯥꯡꯒꯗꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯕꯨ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅ ꯃꯅꯥꯡꯕ; ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → $27; ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ −$70, ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯀꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯔꯨꯠ; ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯂꯥꯞꯄ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ ꯅꯦꯝꯃꯤ (ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ σ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ $14, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 50 ꯗ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ $100)꯫ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯔꯨꯖ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯗ $20 ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯝꯂꯕꯗꯤ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯔꯃꯒꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ σ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯆꯥꯎꯔꯃꯒꯅꯤ, ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯗꯨꯗ ꯃꯇꯧ ꯀꯨꯞꯅ $140: ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯅꯦꯝꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡꯅꯤ꯫
ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯁꯤꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤꯕ
ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 24 ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯟꯕꯅ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯗ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯄ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯒꯨꯝ ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯍꯜꯂꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯇꯁꯦꯡꯅꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ: ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ 64.9%꯫ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕ 35.1% ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯅ ꯄꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯆꯪꯍꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯃꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯥꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯒ꯭ꯔꯤꯗ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯇꯦꯕꯜ, ꯐꯦꯜꯠ, ꯀ꯭ꯂꯣꯊ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯅ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37 ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯁꯦꯃꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ꯫ “ꯏꯟꯁꯨꯔꯦꯟꯁ” ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯗ ꯆꯤꯞꯁꯦꯜꯆꯤꯞꯂꯦꯞꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯇꯥꯛꯄ ꯇꯣꯀꯟ, ꯕꯦꯠ ꯊꯝꯅꯕ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯆꯦꯛ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯍꯥꯄꯆꯤꯜꯂꯕꯁꯨ ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯂꯕ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯁꯨ 2.70% ꯅꯤ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯏꯟꯁꯨꯔꯦꯟꯁ ꯑꯗꯨꯁꯨ 2.70% ꯗ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯊꯝꯂꯤ꯫ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ: ꯗꯖꯟ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯤꯞ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯂꯃꯥꯏꯗ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯇꯧꯗꯨꯅ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ꯫
ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯍꯤꯁꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ: ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 24, ꯊꯣꯀꯄꯗ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯦꯜꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ꯫ ꯄ꯭ꯔꯣꯒ꯭ꯔꯦꯁꯅꯁꯤꯡ ꯌꯨꯅꯤꯠꯇ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯇꯦꯕꯜꯗ ꯆꯠꯂꯤ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → +1, ꯊꯣꯛꯇꯕꯗ −2꯫ ꯀꯂꯝꯁꯤꯡꯕꯦꯠꯀꯂꯝꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯀꯤ ꯊꯣꯡꯅꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯀꯂꯝ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯇꯔꯥꯅꯤꯊꯣꯏ, 2:1 ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯅ ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯟꯂꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯀꯏ; ꯗꯖꯟꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯕꯨ ꯂꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯇ ꯄꯨꯟꯅ ꯊꯝꯃꯤ꯫ ꯑꯃꯠꯇ ꯃꯔꯨ ꯑꯣꯏꯗꯦ꯫
ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 25 ꯀꯨꯞꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ; ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ $1 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯂꯗ ꯖꯤꯔꯣꯅ ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛ −$20 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ +$15 ꯀꯥꯟꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ $21 ꯗ −$0.57, ꯍꯧꯖꯤꯛꯁꯨ 2.70%꯫
ꯑꯣꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯤꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯁꯤꯒ ꯆꯥꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯃꯈꯤ꯫ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯗ ꯅꯍꯥꯛꯅ $10 ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯈꯔꯗ $20 ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯊꯃꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ: ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →ꯅꯤ꯫
ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ꯫ ꯑꯍꯨꯃꯁꯨꯕꯗ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯥꯛ ꯃꯥꯡꯏ꯫ ꯃꯍꯩ 2.70%꯫
ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.