ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ · ꯇꯝꯕ · ꯃꯤꯅꯤꯠ 7

ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁ ꯇꯝꯕ

ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯕꯨ ꯂꯥꯏꯅ ꯈꯟꯊꯕ ꯌꯥꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗ ꯊꯧꯒꯠꯇꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯕꯨ ꯇꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯀꯔꯝꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯒꯗꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯗ ꯂꯩ꯫

ꯊꯨꯅ ꯄꯥꯎꯈꯨꯝ

ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯀꯨꯟꯊ꯭ꯔꯥꯇꯔꯦꯠ, ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯕ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯤꯡ, ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ, ꯈꯉꯂꯕ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯃꯁꯤꯗ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯈꯟꯈꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯁꯥꯡꯕ ꯄꯨꯋꯥꯔꯤ꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯅ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ, ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯑꯀꯣꯌꯕꯗ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯁꯟꯗꯣꯛꯅ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯡ꯫ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞꯇ ꯋꯥꯡꯏ, ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯅꯦꯝꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯍꯣꯠꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯍꯦꯅꯒꯠꯂꯀꯄꯒ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯃꯍꯩꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯗ ꯅꯛꯂꯛꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜ, ꯍꯥꯏꯄꯣꯊꯦꯁꯤꯁ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ ꯀꯣꯏꯟ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯗꯥꯏꯁꯇꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯐꯅ ꯎꯠꯄ ꯉꯝꯃꯤ꯫

ꯁꯦꯝꯄꯜ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯦꯁ
37, ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ
ꯌꯥꯎꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜꯂꯣꯟꯁꯤꯡ
≥ 8
ꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯃꯜ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯕ, ꯕ꯭ꯔꯥꯎꯖꯔꯗ
ꯑꯍꯥꯅꯕ ꯇꯝꯕ
EV = −1/37, ꯃꯇꯝ ꯄꯨꯝꯕꯗ

ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ

ꯀꯣꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯂꯩ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯗꯥꯏꯁ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯇꯔꯨꯛ; ꯑꯅꯤꯃꯛ ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥꯃꯤ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯕꯥ ꯃꯤ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯒꯦ, ꯅꯠꯔꯒ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯕꯒꯦ꯫ ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ 37 ꯂꯩꯕ ꯆꯛꯔꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 8 ꯅ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯑꯍꯦꯟꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯄꯤꯕꯗ ꯃꯇꯤꯛ ꯆꯥꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠꯂꯦꯕꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯎꯈꯤꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯁꯤꯡꯕꯨ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ n/37 ꯒ ꯆꯥꯡꯗꯝꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ꯫ ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕꯔꯥ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯋꯥꯌꯦꯜ ꯇꯧꯅꯕ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯩ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯧꯅꯥ ꯂꯩꯅ ꯎꯠꯅꯕ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯑꯄꯤꯛ꯫ ꯀꯥꯔꯗ ꯗꯦꯛ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯅꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯏ꯫ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ 37 ꯂꯩ, ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯥꯏꯟ ꯑꯃꯈꯛꯀꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯟꯕ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯕ ꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯁꯤꯡꯁꯦꯜꯄꯦꯑꯥꯎꯠꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯍꯜꯂꯛꯄ ꯁꯦꯜ, ꯍꯜꯂꯀꯄ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇ “X ꯗꯒꯤ 1” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯏ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ →, ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯁꯦꯃꯒꯠꯂꯛꯄꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯀꯄ ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯣꯠꯄ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯈꯥꯛ ꯑꯄꯤꯛꯄ ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯂꯩꯉꯥꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯃꯈꯥꯛ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯗ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯅꯒꯗꯕ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯏꯔꯝꯕ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯂꯁꯤꯡꯁꯨ ꯂꯩ꯫

ꯀꯣꯏꯟ, ꯗꯥꯏꯁ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯥꯔꯗꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯨꯠꯇ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯍꯩ 37 ꯂꯥꯛꯂꯤ꯫

ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯠ

ꯇꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯊꯕꯛꯀꯤ ꯃꯊꯧ

ꯇꯝꯕꯋꯥꯈꯜꯂꯣꯟꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯝꯁꯥꯏꯠ ꯑꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏ
1ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯨꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕp(ꯕꯦꯠ) = n/37ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯑꯣꯗꯁ ꯀꯦꯜꯀꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ
2ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜEV = (n/37)(36/n − 1) − (37 − n)/37 = −1/37ꯕꯦꯠ ꯁꯦꯝꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏ
3ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯗꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯜꯇꯤꯞꯂꯤꯀꯦꯁꯅꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ (18/37)²ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ
4ꯀꯝꯞ꯭ꯂꯤꯃꯦꯟꯇ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ “ꯈ꯭ꯕꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯦꯝꯕꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ”1 − (36/37)³⁷ = 63.7%ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯀꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ
5ꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯟꯗꯔꯗ ꯗꯤꯚꯤꯌꯦꯁꯟσ = 5.84 (ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯦꯠ-ꯑꯞ) ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 1.00 (ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ), EV ꯑꯗꯨꯃꯛꯚꯦꯌꯔꯤꯌꯦꯟꯁ
6ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯝ (ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯗꯕ)ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯅꯛꯅꯔꯛꯏ; ꯄꯨꯟꯁꯤꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯥꯞꯊꯣꯛꯂꯛꯏꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯅꯛꯅꯕ
7ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜꯑꯃꯨꯕ 26, 1913ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯈꯜ
8ꯔꯦꯟꯗꯝ ꯋꯥꯛ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯟꯕꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯟꯕꯒꯤ ꯐꯣꯔꯃꯨꯂꯥꯕꯦꯡꯀꯔꯣꯜ ꯃꯥꯡꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯊꯤꯕ ꯀꯦꯜꯀꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ
9ꯍꯥꯏꯄꯣꯊꯦꯁꯤꯁ ꯇꯦꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯡꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠ 37 ꯗ ꯀꯥꯏ-ꯁ꯭ꯀ꯭ꯋꯦꯌꯔꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯆꯛꯔꯒꯤ ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯑꯦꯅꯥꯂꯥꯏꯖꯔ
10ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 8 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯄ, 56%ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ: ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯆꯛꯔ
11ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯁꯟꯆꯦꯛꯀꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 10,000ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ
12ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯁꯤꯡ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯦꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯂꯤꯅꯤꯌꯥꯔꯤꯇꯤꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯄꯨ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯍꯟꯕ ꯉꯃꯒꯗ꯭ꯔꯥ?

ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯇꯥꯛꯇꯅ ꯇꯝꯕꯤꯕ

ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯗꯦꯃꯣ ꯒꯦꯝ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜꯃꯇꯝ ꯁꯥꯡꯅ ꯌꯦꯡꯂꯕꯗ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ꯫ ꯃꯔꯨꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯕꯤꯌꯨ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯗꯨꯗ ꯍꯟꯊꯔꯛꯂꯤꯕꯤꯌꯨ: ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡ “ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯤ −1/37 ꯅꯤ” ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝꯁꯤꯡꯕꯨ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯅꯠꯇꯅ ꯃꯥꯌꯣꯛꯅꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯝ ꯑꯣꯏꯅ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ: ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯤꯗꯣꯛꯄꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔꯅ ꯆꯦꯛꯀꯟꯗ ꯈꯔꯗ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯎꯍꯜꯂꯤ꯫ ꯃꯥꯡꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯋꯥꯔꯤꯁꯨ ꯌꯥꯎꯍꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ꯫ ꯇꯝꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯕꯅ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯀꯏ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯤ, ꯃꯁꯤ ꯑꯦꯗꯚꯔꯇꯥꯏꯖꯃꯦꯟꯇ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯟꯊꯣꯛꯅꯤ꯫

ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥꯁꯤꯡ

ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯗꯦꯃꯣ ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯇꯔꯥ ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ (ꯄꯣꯛꯄ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯀꯤ ꯁꯃꯁ꯭ꯌꯥ)꯫ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯑꯦꯗꯤꯇꯔꯗ “ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ” ꯑꯃꯥ ꯏꯍꯟꯗꯨꯅ ꯁꯦꯁꯟ 10,000 ꯆꯂꯥꯏꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ (ꯐꯪꯒꯗꯕ ꯃꯃꯂꯒꯤ ꯂꯤꯅꯤꯌꯥꯔꯤꯇꯤ)꯫ 1913 ꯒꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕꯃꯍꯩ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 1 ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ ꯅꯠꯔꯒ 0% ꯗꯒꯤ 100% ꯐꯥꯑꯣꯕ꯫ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯥ: 1/37 = 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯊꯤꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯃꯣꯟꯇꯦ ꯀꯥꯔꯂꯣꯒꯤ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯌꯥꯡꯈꯩꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯗ ꯁ꯭ꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯊꯤꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ (ꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯨꯝꯕ ꯊꯧꯗꯣꯛ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯈꯦꯟꯅꯕ)꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯃꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯍꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯔꯤ ꯑꯃꯗ “ꯕꯥꯏꯌꯥꯁ ꯂꯩꯕ” ꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯏꯄꯣꯀꯦꯠꯔꯣꯇꯔꯗ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯏꯔꯕ ꯀꯣꯠ 37 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯅꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯃꯥ꯫ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯃꯤꯡ: ꯁ꯭ꯂꯣꯠ, ꯀꯞ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯊꯤꯍꯟꯗꯨꯅ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯗꯦꯇꯥ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯥꯟꯊꯣꯛꯍꯅꯕꯤꯌꯨ (ꯃꯜꯇꯤꯄꯜ ꯀꯝꯄꯦꯔꯤꯖꯟ)꯫

ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯋꯥꯈꯜꯅ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯊꯨꯅ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕꯒꯦ (ꯀ꯭ꯂꯥꯁ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅ ꯊꯣꯀꯄ ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ)
ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯟꯅ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ: ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄ ≈ 19, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ 8
8 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 19
p(ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟ 37 ꯗ ≥1 ꯊꯣꯛꯄ): ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄ 100%, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ 63.7%
63.7% ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 100%
p(ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ 10 ꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯑꯉꯥꯡꯕ): ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄ “ꯍꯟꯊꯕ”, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ 48.65%
48.65%
ꯀꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯁꯦꯁꯟꯁꯤꯡ, ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ: ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄ ≈ 95%, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ≈ 78%
78% ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 95%
ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖ ꯃꯍꯩ, ꯃꯥꯔꯇꯤꯟꯒꯦꯜ: ꯂꯥꯎꯊꯣꯀꯄ “ꯄꯣꯖꯤꯇꯤꯕ”, ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ
ꯅꯦꯒꯦꯇꯤꯕ
050100
ꯈꯦꯟꯅꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡ ꯇꯝꯕ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫ ꯑꯔꯣꯏꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯀꯣꯔꯁ ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛꯅꯤ꯫

ꯐꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯈꯤꯕ ꯁ꯭ꯄꯤꯟꯒꯤ ꯄꯨꯋꯥꯔꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯇꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯤꯀꯦꯜ ꯁꯤꯒ꯭ꯅꯤꯐꯤꯀꯦꯟꯁ

ꯀꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯕꯒꯦ

ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯑꯃꯨꯕꯕꯦꯠꯑꯃꯨꯕꯑꯃꯨꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ 18 ꯗ ꯊꯝꯕ ꯆꯞ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ꯫ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯦꯟꯆ: ꯅꯣꯌꯥꯔ꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → 26, ꯖꯦꯒꯔꯒꯤ ꯆꯛꯔ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔꯅ ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯒꯤ ꯁꯤꯁ꯭ꯇꯦꯝ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯔꯤꯕ ꯎꯠꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯅꯤꯡꯁꯤꯡꯏ꯫ ꯑꯀꯨꯞꯄ ꯑꯣꯏꯕ ꯊꯣꯛꯄꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯥꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯆꯥꯡꯌꯦꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗ ꯀꯥꯎꯏ; ꯆꯛꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯤ ꯀꯥꯎꯗꯦ꯫ ꯆꯨꯝꯕ ꯂꯝꯕꯤ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯌꯦꯛ ꯁꯦꯡꯏ: ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯗꯨꯅ, ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯐꯠꯇꯕ ꯕꯦꯠ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯟꯂꯤꯕ ꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯝꯕꯤꯕꯤꯌꯨ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕ ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅ ꯌꯥꯃꯗ꯭ꯔꯕꯗꯁꯨ ꯃꯃꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯈꯉꯒꯅꯤ꯫

ꯃꯃꯤꯡ ꯂꯩꯔꯕ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡ

ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ

ꯃꯁꯤ ꯁ꯭ꯀꯨꯂꯒꯤ ꯃꯍꯩꯔꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯔꯥ?

ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯦꯜꯒꯥ ꯂꯣꯌꯅꯅ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯃꯦꯊꯃꯦꯇꯤꯛꯁꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖꯊꯝꯂꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯗꯒꯤ ꯀꯦꯁꯤꯅꯣꯅ ꯑꯦꯚꯔꯦꯖꯗ ꯊꯃꯖꯤꯜꯂꯤꯕ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ: ꯌꯨꯔꯣꯄꯤꯌꯟ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠꯇ 2.70%꯫ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯕꯤꯌꯨ → ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯝꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅ ꯃꯌꯦꯛ ꯁꯦꯡꯅ ꯍꯥꯌꯗꯨꯅ꯫ ꯀꯔꯤꯀꯨꯂꯝ ꯀꯌꯥꯅ ꯍꯥꯟꯅꯗꯒꯤ ꯗꯥꯏꯁ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯣꯇꯔꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯔꯤ; ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯃꯔꯥꯡ ꯀꯥꯏꯕ ꯃꯈꯜ ꯑꯃꯅꯤ꯫

ꯑꯣꯖꯥ ꯑꯃꯅ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯂꯃꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯧꯒꯗꯒꯦ?

ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯗꯦꯃꯣ ꯒꯦꯝ, ꯃꯗꯨꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗ ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ ꯊꯧꯔꯥꯡ ꯁꯤꯃꯨꯂꯦꯇꯔ꯫

ꯗꯦꯃꯣ ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯀ꯭ꯂꯥꯁꯔꯨꯃꯒꯤꯗꯃꯛ ꯑꯁꯣꯏꯕ ꯂꯩꯇꯕꯔꯥ?

ꯃꯁꯤꯗ ꯑꯁꯦꯡꯕ ꯁꯦꯜ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ, ꯑꯦꯀꯥꯎꯟꯠ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯣꯄꯔꯦꯇꯔꯁꯤꯡꯗ ꯆꯠꯄ ꯂꯤꯉ꯭ꯛ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ꯫

ꯅꯣꯛꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯀꯃꯤꯛ

ꯃꯍꯩ ꯀꯨꯟꯊ꯭ꯔꯥꯇꯔꯦꯠ, ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯇꯃꯒꯗꯕ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕꯁꯤꯡ꯫

ꯃꯍꯩ ꯀꯨꯟꯊ꯭ꯔꯥꯇꯔꯦꯠ, ꯍꯥꯎꯁ ꯑꯦꯖ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯇꯃꯒꯗꯕ ꯆꯍꯤ ꯂꯤꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯅꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯔꯥꯟꯕꯁꯤꯡ꯫

ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯃꯁꯤꯡ

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, ꯑꯦꯗꯤꯁꯟ 3, 1968꯫ ꯖꯨꯌꯥ ꯁꯥꯟꯅꯔꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯂꯣꯏꯁꯤꯟꯕ, ꯆꯦꯞꯇꯔ XIV꯫
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010꯫ ꯆꯦꯞꯇꯔ 13, ꯔꯨꯂꯦꯠ꯫
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